One of the downsides of writing for a magazine is that the copy must be finalized weeks before the document is sent to the printer. That time is needed to layout all the articles, advertising, and photography so there is a smooth flow to the content.
That being said, this article will be about the expected future of our country, and really our world, following the November 3 presidential election. The magazine will probably be at the printer when that event occurs, so I have no way to write about what to expect from the winner because I don’t know who that will be. So, we will look at what each candidate can be expected to do if elected.
Let’s start with Mr. Biden. Much has been written by his detrators about his competency to hold the highest office in the country, and his conduct on certain occasions lends some credence to what his political opponents have warned. Nonetheless, even if his wheels are wobbling a little, there will be adequate support provided to him by his party to enable him to give the appearance that he is making the hard decisions required of the office.
He has stated that, as president, he will raise taxes and we can undoubtedly expect that to happen. He has also been very liberal on the issue of immigration, so the “wall” will probably be scrapped so that migration into our country is without obstruction. He has also spoken of free college tuition for those eligible and for free healthcare for those who need it. Stopping there, it is obvious that he will have no choice but to raise taxes to pay for these “free” programs. They may be free to some, but others will have to pay for them in some fashion. There is no free lunch.
The federal hiring freeze will probably be lifted by President Biden and the governmental business regulations streamlined by the Trump Administration will once again be tightened to gain more control over that segment of our society. Although such measures would seem to foretell declines in the money markets, such has not always been the case in the past. Markets are scared to death of uncertainty, so as long as the policies of the person in command are consistent the markets should react positively over the long run.
Finally, if we haven’t solved the COVID-19 problem by inauguration day in 2021, Mr. Biden has indicated his desire to impose a nationwide lockdown to put a cap on the disease once and for all, assuming a lockdown really works. Like everything else concerning the pandemic, our experts have expressed conflicting thoughts about what the results of a lockdown may be. Some even suggest that a lockdown would produce more sickness and death than it would prevent.
So much for a Biden Presidency. It’s easy to suggest that a second Trump term might deliver much of what we witnessed during his first four years in office, but that might not hold true. He may not change his stripes during a second-round in office, but he may have an easier or tougher time getting legislation introduced and passed by Congress, depending on which party wins control of the House and Senate. Even if things remain as is, the party not in power might not be as vigorous in its opposition to certain legislation as it was during Trump’s first term. It may run out of a little steam before the next four years pass by.
I would expect, and certainly hope, that President Trump would temper his use of social media and not try to comment on everything starting at 5 am the day after something happens. He might start thinking of his legacy as president and adopt a more presidential persona. Or, maybe not.
We could probably expect more tax relief, especially for businesses, and he will certainly pursue the completion of the “wall” to stifle illegal immigration. America First will remain the battle cry in foreign relations, the size of the federal government will continue to decline, and business regulations will continue to fill a smaller number of pages in the Code of Federal Regulations.
I’m convinced that a vaccine will be found to fight COVID-19 but no one can predict how effective it will be, and how quickly it will take effect to prevent or expunge the disease, but it will probably happen before Inauguration Day. When that day comes, businesses will start to open their sealed doors and bring employees back to needed work. The markets will respond favorably, of course, and investors will be rewarded for their staying the course.
It is less clear what Mr. Trump might do during his second term regarding healthcare and higher education. If action is taken to ease the financial burdens in these areas, there will have to be some quid pro quo to provide funds to accomplish that, and it is not clear where those moneys would come from.
So there you have it. I have no idea who will be victorious as this article is being printed, but either way you have at least one person’s perspective of our country, and the world, either way.
Best of luck to both candidates, and to America.